10 Questions That Will Shape the Rest of 2026
Why geopolitics, economics, technology and climate are becoming impossible to separate
Hello and welcome back to States of Play, the newsletter exploring how the world is changing - from geopolitics to technology, from defence to demographics.
Every six months, my colleagues and I at Sibylline (which is a geopolitical consultancy in case you don’t knot it) publish our Mid-Year Forecast, bringing together our assessment of the geopolitical, economic and security trends most likely to shape the months ahead. This week’s States of Play is my take on what this year’s report tells us about the world today.
Will the Democrats regain the House of Representatives? Could Taiwan become the world’s most dangerous flashpoint? Why are CEOs increasingly finding themselves on the frontline of geopolitical risk? And how might climate change become a driver of international instability? These are just some of the questions we explore.
What follows is my interpretation of the report’s biggest themes and why I think they matter. If you’d like to explore the full analysis, including our most likely and most dangerous scenarios, you can order the complete Sibylline Mid-Year Forecast 2026 here.
Many thanks for reading.
Sam
The Age of Polycrisis
At first glance, the ten questions explored in this year’s Mid-Year Forecast appear to have little in common. They range from the US midterm elections and strategic competition with China to climate change, cyber attacks and the future of Ukraine. Yet together they reveal a much bigger story. They describe a world in which geopolitical, economic, technological and environmental risks no longer exist in separate silos but increasingly collide, overlap and reinforce one another.
This is what many now describe as what I have written about before: a polycrisis. A conflict in the Middle East pushes up energy prices around the world. Climate shocks fuel food insecurity and migration. Political instability reshapes foreign policy, while geopolitical rivalry reaches ever deeper into boardrooms and supply chains. The challenge is no longer responding to one major shock at a time. Instread, governments, businesses and societies are increasingly confronted by multiple crises unfolding simultaneously, each amplifying the next. Volatility is no longer the exception; rather, it is becoming the operating environment.
The ten questions in this year’s report can therefore be grouped into four broader themes. The first explores how the boundary between domestic politics and international affairs is steadily disappearing. The second examines the return of great power competition, fought as much through technology, trade and infrastructure as through military strength. The third looks at how conflict, climate and critical supply chains are becoming ever more intertwined. And finally, the report considers what all this means for business, as companies increasingly find themselves operating on the front line of geopolitical change rather than observing it from a distance.
Politics Without Borders
The first theme is the erosion of the traditional boundary between domestic and international politics. For much of the post-Cold War period, governments tended to treat foreign policy, economic policy and domestic politics as largely separate disciplines. That distinction is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. International conflicts now influence inflation, migration and election outcomes, while domestic political pressures increasingly shape trade policy, alliance structures and international security. Politics is becoming geopolitical, and geopolitics is becoming increasingly domestic. You only have to look at the pro-Palestinian marches on the streets of Western capitals to see this in action.
Our most likely assessment is that the second half of 2026 will be characterised by increasing but managed strategic competition, rather than outright confrontation
But there is more to this than blowback from the Middle East. The first question looks at how geopolitics is impacting the domestic stability of the world’s largest economy and, arguably, its most consequential election outside a presidential contest: the US midterm elections.
The vote will be seen not simply as a judgement on Congress but as a referendum on the direction of President Trump’s second administration. Coming after multiple assassination attempts against Trump and amid deepening political polarisation, it will also be another test of the resilience of American democracy itself. Our assessment is that the Democrats are more likely than not to regain control of the House of Representatives, driven largely by continuing concerns over affordability,
