States of Play by Sam Olsen

States of Play by Sam Olsen

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March 2026

Britons Know the Next War is Coming. Why Doesn't the Government?
As conflict shifts from battlefields to infrastructure and daily life, the gap between public awareness and state preparedness is widening.
 • Sam Olsen
Is China Winning the Iran War It Isn't Fighting?
Gulf War 3 is not just a regional conflict, but probably a turning point in the structure of global order
 • Sam Olsen
The Gulf’s War Scenarios
From managed de-escalation to regional escalation, four trajectories now define the conflict - and none leave the Gulf countries untouched.
 • Sam Olsen
The Nodes That Run the World
How the Iran war is exposing the fragile architecture of globalisation
 • Sam Olsen
The (First) Strategic Shocks of the Iran War
What the conflict is already revealing about energy markets, great-power rivalry and the resilience of the international system
 • Sam Olsen
Does Britain Need America?
In a transactional age of alliances, Britain will only matter to Washington if it remains a country America actually needs
 • Sam Olsen
Use This War to Prepare For What's Next
Why the Middle East war is a rehearsal for a far greater test of Western resilience
 • Sam Olsen
Situation Update: Iran
Sign up to Sibylline’s latest assessment on regime stability, escalation risks and regional spillover - plus how to receive ongoing crisis updates.
 • Sam Olsen
The Beginning of the End of 1979
Why the Death of the Ayatollah Is Both a Symptom and Accelerator of Global Geopolitical Change
 • Sam Olsen

February 2026

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